Lesson 3 of 9

Matched betting

Locking in promotion value by betting both sides.

  1. 3.1What is matched betting?Matched betting is using a sportsbook promotion and then betting the opposite outcome, sized so you finish with nearly the same amount whoever wins. The profit comes from the promotion, not from predicting anything.
  2. 3.2Matched betting in the US: hedging across two sportsbooksIn the US you usually match a promotion by betting the opposite side at a second sportsbook, not by laying it on an exchange. The formula changes slightly; the idea does not.
  3. 3.3The hedge bet formula, for cash, bonus bets, site credit and laysEvery equal-profit hedge comes from one step: write down what each outcome pays and set them equal. For a cash bet H = S × d₁ ÷ d₂; for a bonus bet H = B × (d₁ − 1) ÷ d₂.
  4. 3.4Qualifying bets: unlocking a promotion for the least moneyA qualifying bet is the bet you must place to unlock a promotion. Hedged, it costs a small fixed amount — the qualifying loss — and how small depends almost entirely on the market's margin.
  5. 3.5Matched betting vs +EV betting vs arbitrageMatched betting converts promotions with almost no variance but runs out; arbitrage locks small margins but draws limits; +EV betting scales furthest but swings hard. Most people do them in that order.
  6. 3.6Is matched betting legal?Where sports betting is legal, matched betting is just placing legal bets. Sportsbooks can still limit you or remove you from promotions under their terms, and some practices — multiple accounts, using someone else's account — break those terms outright.
  7. 3.7Matched betting and taxes in the USUnder the general IRS rules the two bets in a matched pair are counted separately: the winning leg is gambling income, the losing leg a gambling loss you can deduct only if you itemize. So your taxable winnings can be far larger than your real profit. General information — ask a tax professional.
  8. 3.8Matched betting mistakes, and how to avoid each oneMatched betting removes the game's risk and replaces it with execution risk. Six mistakes cause almost all the losses, and each has a simple habit that prevents it.