What is a good bonus bet conversion rate?
70–75% is a good conversion rate on a hedged bonus bet. It is set by two things: the odds you use the bonus at, and how tight the pair of prices is.
Updated September 27, 2026 · TrueEdge Academy
Your conversion rate is the cash you lock in divided by the bonus bet's face value. A good rate on a single bonus bet, hedged at a different book on a main-line market, is 70% to 75%. Above 80% is uncommon and usually means one of the two prices was stale or mispriced. Below 60% means value was left behind, almost always because the bonus went on too short a price or into too wide a market. Two numbers decide the rate: the odds you place the bonus at, and the combined margin of the two prices you pair.
The formula
If the bonus bet B goes on decimal odds d₁ and the hedge goes on the other side at decimal d₂, the locked profit is B × (d₁ − 1) × (1 − 1/d₂). Divide by B for the rate. It becomes easier to read once you name the pair's overround: the amount m by which the two implied probabilities, 1/d₁ + 1/d₂, add up to more than 1. Substituting gives the version worth memorising:
- Conversion rate
- (1 − 1/d₁) − m × (d₁ − 1)
- First term
- what the bonus is worth at a perfectly fair price
- Second term
- what the market's margin costs you, growing with the odds
Longer odds raise the first term and also raise the second. That tension is the whole optimisation.
- +200 (3.00), hedge at about −219
- 62.7% · hedge stake $137.33
- +250 (3.50), hedge at about −276
- 66.4% · hedge stake $183.57
- +300 (4.00), hedge at about −335
- 69.0% · hedge stake $231.00
- +400 (5.00), hedge at about −456
- 72.0% · hedge stake $328.00
- +500 (6.00), hedge at about −582
- 73.3% · hedge stake $426.67
- +600 (7.00), hedge at about −714
- 73.7% · hedge stake $526.29
Illustration. Each hedge price is the one that makes the pair's implied probabilities add to exactly 102%, shown rounded; the rates are computed from the unrounded price. Check any row: at +400, 0.80 − 0.02 × 4 = 0.72.
- +200, hedge at about −241
- 58.7%
- +250, hedge at about −307
- 61.4%
- +300, hedge at about −376
- 63.0%
- +400, hedge at about −525
- 64.0%
- +500, hedge at about −689
- 63.3%
- +600, hedge at about −872
- 61.7%
Doubling the margin costs 4 to 12 points and moves the best price from the longest odds down to +400.
Why there is a sweet spot
In the formula, the fair-value term rises more and more slowly as the odds lengthen while the margin term rises in a straight line, so the rate peaks and then falls. The peak sits at decimal odds of 1 ÷ √m: about +600 when the pair's margin is 2%, and +400 when it is 4%. Real markets are harsher than the table, because books tend to build more margin into longer prices, so the working range in practice is usually +300 to +500. Past that, the extra point or two of conversion also asks for a much larger hedge stake: the +600 row asks for about $100 more cash than the +500 row to earn 40 cents more.
Market width is the lever you control most
The two tables differ only in margin, and the gap is up to 12 points. That margin is not something the book sets for you: it is whatever pair of prices you choose. A single book's −110/−110 market has an overround of 4.8%. Taking the best price on each side from different books on a major-league main line routinely brings it under 2%. This is why a bonus bet hedged at the same book, or placed on a player prop, converts badly, and why hold and vig and low-hold markets are worth understanding before you convert anything.
How to benchmark your own conversion rate
- 1For every bonus bet, record its face value and the profit the hedge locked in at the moment both bets were placed, not after settlement.
- 2Divide one by the other for each bet, and total both columns for an overall rate. The overall figure is the one that matters; a single 80% conversion is often luck in the prices.
- 3Compare against the tables above. Consistently above 70% on main lines is solid. 60–70% usually means the bonus went on prices shorter than +250, or the hedge was taken at a book that was not the best price.
- 4Look at the misses individually. The usual causes are a hedge price that moved before you placed it, a stake rounded to a book's increment, or a minimum-odds rule that forced a worse market.
- 5Track conversion separately from profit. A bonus bet's result on the scoreboard says nothing about whether you converted it well; the rate at placement does.
Finding the best pair automatically
The Promo Optimizer computes this for every market on your books: it ranks plans by conversion, shows the hedge stake as Peak cash needed beside it, and lets you set a maximum hedge so plans you cannot fund are hidden. Its odds filter bounds the price the bonus goes on, so you can hold it to +250 or longer. The walkthrough shows the trade-off with real figures, and how to convert bonus bets covers the placement itself.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a good bonus bet conversion rate?
- 70–75% on a single bonus bet hedged at a different book. Above 80% is uncommon; below 60% usually means the odds were too short or the market too wide.
- How do you calculate bonus bet conversion?
- Divide the profit the hedge locks in by the bonus bet's face value. A $100 bonus bet that locks $72 is a 72% conversion.
- Why can't a bonus bet convert at 100%?
- Because the stake is never returned. Even at perfectly fair prices a bonus bet at +400 is worth 80% of its face value, and the hedge's margin takes a little more.
- Is a higher conversion rate always better?
- Not if you cannot fund it. Higher rates come from longer odds and need larger hedge stakes, so the best plan is the best one your available cash can place.