How to find positive EV bets, step by step

In short: Work out each outcome's fair probability by removing the margin from a sharp book's prices, then look for a book paying more than that fair price. The gap, as a share of your stake, is your expected value.

Step by step

  1. 1

    Pick a sharp reference price

    Use a book that takes large bets and moves fast, such as Pinnacle or Circa, or a consensus of sharp books.

  2. 2

    Remove the margin (de-vig)

    Convert both sides to implied probabilities, add them, and divide each by the total. That gives the fair probability.

  3. 3

    Compare every book's price

    For each book, EV = fair probability × decimal odds − 1. Anything above zero is +EV.

  4. 4

    Check the price is still there

    Open the book's betslip and confirm the odds before you bet.

  5. 5

    Stake a small, fixed fraction

    Bet a consistent fraction of your bankroll — many bettors use a fraction of the Kelly stake — never your whole edge.

  6. 6

    Track against the closing line

    Record the price you took and the closing price. Beating the close over many bets is the evidence your edges are real.

Worked example: calculating EV

The sharp book prices Team X at -125 (55.56% implied) and Team Y at +115 (46.51% implied). Together: 102.07%.

De-vigged: Team Y's fair probability = 46.51% ÷ 102.07% = 45.57%, a fair price of about +119.

A soft book offers Team Y at +130 (decimal 2.30).

EV = 0.4557 × 2.30 − 1 = +0.048, a 4.8% edge.

On a $100 bet the expected profit is about $4.81. It still loses more often than it wins; the edge shows over many bets.

How to find +EV bets for free

You can do everything above by hand: read a sharp book's price, de-vig it with a free hold calculator, and compare it with each book's price. It works, but +EV prices usually last minutes, so by hand you will see few of them in time.

A sensible +EV strategy

  • Stick to markets where the sharp price is reliable — main lines before props.
  • Be sceptical of very large edges; they usually mean a stale or wrong reference price.
  • Bet many small edges rather than a few large stakes.
  • Judge results over hundreds of bets and against the closing line.

Tools for this

Frequently asked questions

How do you find positive EV bets?

Remove the margin from a sharp book's prices to get a fair probability, then look for books paying more than that fair price.

How do you calculate EV on a bet?

EV = fair probability × decimal odds − 1, per $1 staked. At a fair 45.57% and decimal odds of 2.30, EV is +4.8%.

Can you find positive EV bets for free?

Yes, by hand, with a sharp book's prices and a free no-vig calculator. It is slow, and most +EV prices last only minutes.

What is positive EV betting?

Betting only when the odds pay more than the outcome's fair probability justifies, so the average result over many bets is a profit.

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