Strategy
Arbitrage: profit that does not depend on the result
When two books disagree far enough, covering every outcome costs less than it returns.
Updated September 27, 2026 · TrueEdge Academy
Books price independently and do not always agree. When the best available price on each side of a two-way market adds up to less than 100% implied probability, you can back both sides and profit whichever way it lands.
- Book A — Over 49.5
- +105 (implied 48.8%)
- Book B — Under 49.5
- +102 (implied 49.5%)
- Implied total
- 98.3% — under 100, so it is an arb
- Stake on A
- $507
- Stake on B
- $493
- Total at risk
- $1,000
- Return if Over
- $1,039
- Return if Under
- $1,040
- Profit
- ≈ $39 either way — 3.9% on the pair
Placing one without getting hurt
- 1Place the leg at the softer book FIRST. It is the one most likely to move or void, and if it does you want to still be unhedged rather than holding the wrong half.
- 2Check the second leg is still there before you commit. Arbs live minutes and sometimes seconds.
- 3Confirm both legs actually accepted. A partially placed arb is a straight bet you did not intend to make.
- 4Keep the stakes off round numbers only where it does not cost you — $507 is fine, $500.00 on both sides at every arb is a pattern.