How to middle a bet, step by step

In short: A middle is two bets on opposite sides of a spread or total at different numbers, so a result between the numbers wins both. Most middles miss and cost a little; the occasional hit pays both bets.

Step by step

  1. 1

    Find a line that has moved

    Middles appear when one book moves a spread or total and another has not — or when you bet early and the line moves after.

  2. 2

    Take each side at its best number

    The favourite at the smaller spread, the underdog at the larger one; or the over at the lower total, the under at the higher.

  3. 3

    Work out the miss cost

    If both sides are -110 and you stake $110 each, a miss costs $10 — one bet wins $100, the other loses $110.

  4. 4

    Work out the break-even hit rate

    Break-even = miss cost ÷ (win-both payout + miss cost).

  5. 5

    Only bet windows that land often enough

    A window covering common results — in the NFL, margins of 3 and 7 — is worth far more than one covering rare results.

Worked example: a spread middle

Book A: Favourite -2.5 at -110. Book B: Underdog +4.5 at -110.

Stake $110 on each.

Favourite wins by 3 or 4: both bets win, +$200.

Any other result: one wins $100, one loses $110, −$10.

Break-even hit rate: 10 ÷ 210 = 4.76%.

What is a middle bet?

Two bets on opposite sides of the same line, at numbers far enough apart that a result can land between them and win both. It is not an arbitrage: a miss loses a small amount.

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Frequently asked questions

What is a middle bet?

Two bets on opposite sides of a spread or total at different numbers, so a result between them wins both. A miss loses a small amount.

How do you middle a bet?

Take one side at one book and the other side at a different number at another book, then check the window lands often enough to beat the break-even hit rate.

Is a middle the same as an arbitrage?

No. An arbitrage returns a profit whatever happens; a middle loses a little on most results and wins both bets on a few.

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